Calculating probablities can be used to help us make decision. PatrickJMT explains how to calculate probability in an "either A or not A" scenario. The probability of A plus the probability of not A is equal to one. Therefore, the probability of A is equal to one minus the probability of not A ; P(A)= 1 - P(not A). The probability of a major earthquake in San Francisco over a period of time is used as an example. The probablity of an earthquake of a magnitude of 7.5 or greater in San Francisco in any given year is said to be 2 percent or 0.02. Assuming that the earthquakes are independent of each other, he calculates the probability of San Francisco having a major earthquake in the next 25 years. This is one minus 0.98 to the power of 25, or about 0.397. There is therefore an approximately 40 percent chance that San Francisco will have a major earthquake in the next 25 years. He shows us how the scenario gets worse for San Francisco over the next 50 and 100 years with increasing probabilities that a major earthquake will happen.

**Want to master Microsoft Excel and take your work-from-home job prospects to the next level?** Jump-start your career with our Premium A-to-Z Microsoft Excel Training Bundle from the new Gadget Hacks Shop and get lifetime access to more than 40 hours of Basic to Advanced instruction on functions, formula, tools, and more.

Other worthwhile deals to check out:

- 97% off The Ultimate 2021 White Hat Hacker Certification Bundle
- 98% off The 2021 Accounting Mastery Bootcamp Bundle
- 99% off The 2021 All-in-One Data Scientist Mega Bundle
- 59% off XSplit VCam: Lifetime Subscription (Windows)
- 98% off The 2021 Premium Learn To Code Certification Bundle
- 62% off MindMaster Mind Mapping Software: Perpetual License
- 41% off NetSpot Home Wi-Fi Analyzer: Lifetime Upgrades

## Be the First to Comment

## Share Your Thoughts